Oscars 2021: Best Picture contenders, Vol. I

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By Jacob Skubish

In April the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences made a big change in Oscars eligibility: for the first time in the history of the Academy Awards, streaming-only releases will be eligible to be nominated for Best Picture. The move was an acknowledgement of the state of disarray the movie industry finds itself in. As the United States fails to contain the spread of COVID-19 it is increasingly clear that compact, indoor spaces where people spend extended periods of time together, like movie theaters, pose a high risk for infection. Studios are continuing to delay theatrical releases in response to consumer fears and state restrictions; if the Academy did not adjust its rules, it would have had a much smaller pool of films to choose from.

There is no doubt in my mind that the Oscars will happen, even if the awards ceremony turns out to be some bizarre virtual extravaganza. The Academy, and the studios, will not let a year go by without the industry’s biggest promotional event carrying on. But the nominated movies will be different. Yet among prognosticators there still seems to be some cognitive dissonance about what will happen with theaters moving forward.

It is exceedingly obvious to me that movie theaters will not be reopening in any meaningful way this Oscars season. It won’t happen. But among the top Best Picture contenders listed on Gold Derby, you’ll find big budget studio releases like Tenet and West Side Story, the type of movies dependent on a wide theatrical release. These movies will not go to theaters if they can’t sell enough tickets to make it worth it financially, and I’m skeptical that Steven Spielberg would ever allow his reboot of one of the biggest musicals of all time to be released straight to a streaming platform. Blockbuster contenders like West Side Story will simply choose to delay release until 2021.

Therefore, the only movies that are likely to be nominated for Best Picture next spring are those that are either owned by streaming giants like Netflix or are small enough that the studios become willing to scrap theatrical releases and put them online. It’s why this list of contenders is different than others: I’m just not convinced that we will see films like Tenet or Dune until 2021, and even many midlevel movies might decide to just delay release until a time when they are able to capture more attention.

My assumptions could be wrong for a couple of reasons. Maybe the movie industry drastically shifts overnight and we get a Steven Spielberg movie released directly to our phones; maybe without national guidance people will flock to theaters in the fall, disregarding public health precautions in the name of personal satisfaction (this seems to be our strategy so far). This year is, without a doubt, the most unpredictable in Oscars history. But for now, here are the nine leading contenders for Best Picture.

Da 5 Bloods

Release Date: June 12

An absolute lock for a Best Picture nomination, even this far out. Spike Lee’s latest film might also be the biggest he’s ever made; Da 5 Bloods stretches about as far from Brooklyn as you can get. It also happens to be a masterpiece, and a vital historical corrective. For his role as Paul, Delroy Lindo is also an early contender for Best Actor.

Hillbilly Elegy

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Release Date: TBD

Netflix movies have a huge advantage this year: not only are they already slated for streaming release, but the studio wrapped all filming on its 2020 projects in 2019. I have four Netflix movies on this list, and I would have had more if I didn’t think the Academy will try to avoid giving the streaming giant too many nominations. Hillbilly Elegy seems like a safe bet: director Ron Howard is a Hollywood stalwart, and the film is based on a bestselling, and controversial (and bad, in this writer’s opinion), memoir by J.D. Vance. It also stars the leaders in earning Oscar nominations without winning: Amy Adams and Glenn Close.

Mank

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Release Date: TBD

David Fincher’s first feature film since Gone Girl is set to hit Netflix this fall. Mank tells the story of Herman Mankiewicz as he writes the screenplay for Orson Welles’ Citizen Kane. It’s the sort of inside Hollywood fodder the Academy loves, from one of the best directors on the planet. Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried star.

On the Rocks

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Release Date: TBD

Director Sofia Coppola scored a Best Picture nomination for her last feature collaboration with Bill Murray, Lost in Translation, and she is now reuniting with him on a feature film for the first time in 16 years. On the Rocks stars Murray as a father to Rashida Jones, who reconnects with Murray on an adventure through New York. Jenny Slate also stars; this movie was custom made for me.

Respect

Release Date: December 25

The trailer for this Aretha Franklin biopic was recently released and Jennifer Hudson, as always, sounds mind-bogglingly great. Respect falls squarely in the tradition of past nominees like Hidden Figures, Selma, and Ray that the Academy tends to be drawn toward: standard format biopics of Black excellence in the face of societal resistance. This film is still slated for theatrical release, although I expect that to change. Forest Whitaker and Audra McDonald also star.

Stillwater

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Release Date: November 6

Stillwater stars Matt Damon as a father who must travel to Oklahoma to France when his daughter (Abigail Breslin) is arrested for murder. Five years ago director Tom McCarthy scored a Best Picture win with Spotlight, and he’s back here with the sort of mid-budget drama that tends to bring out the best in Damon.

The Father

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Release Date: TBD

Strong early buzz out of Sundance for this drama starring Academy favorites Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins. The film centers on a man refusing care from his daughter as he ages; it’s the sort of plot tailor-made for emotional Oscar-bait speeches.

The French Dispatch

Release Date: October 16

Wes Anderson’s latest is still scheduled for theatrical release. If those plans get nixed, his brand of cinema is the sort of idiosyncratic comfort food that would play well at home, and I can see the studio opting to shift to an on-demand release. The cast of The French Dispatch is packed to the brim with stars, and Anderson has a strong track record with Academy nominations.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

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Release Date: TBD

Netflix recently bought The Trial of the Chicago 7, the latest from writer-director Aaron Sorkin. The cast is outstanding, and a film about social unrest and a presidential nominating convention during an election year is sure to catch the Academy’s attention.

Others to Keep an eye on

Antebellum (August 21)

C’mon C’mon (TBD)

Deep Water (November 13)

Dune (December 18)

I’m Thinking of Ending Things (TBD)

Minari (TBD)

News of the World (December 25)

Nomadland (TBD)

Soul (November 20)

Tenet (August 12)

The Glorias (September 25)

The Last Duel (January 8, 2021)

The Little Things (January 29, 2021)

The Midnight Sky (TBD)

Voyagers (November 25)

West Side Story (December 18)

Jacob SkubishComment