Oscars 2021 Best Picture contenders: another frontrunner gets delayed
By Jake Skubish
The Best Picture field has winnowed once again, with the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect being pushed back seven months into August 2021. Because the Academy decided to delay the Oscars there is still a long window of eligibility (into February 2021). But the number of movies that have a legitimate shot at a nomination is narrowing more quickly than any other year.
For this update, I am not replacing Respect with anything, keeping the likely nominees at eight. Outside of those eight there are, at this point, only two movies that seem to have strong momentum toward a nomination: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and News of the World.
According to GoldDerby, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the fifth-most likely nominee for Best Picture. I have my doubts, mostly due to the fact that the Academy does not want next year’s ceremony to be a coronation of Netflix’s overwhelming power. Per GoldDerby’s rankings, five of the Best Picture nominees would be Netflix films. I don’t see it happening. I have four, which already feels like a stretch, but buzzy movies from Ron Howard, Spike Lee, David Fincher, and Aaron Sorkin all feel like safe bets. Consider Chadwick Boseman a lock for a posthumous nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, though, if not a lock for a win.
The other film with surging odds is the Paul Greengrass drama News of the World, starring Tom Hanks. On paper that sounds like an obvious nominee, especially since the last time the two collaborated was on the 2013 Best Picture nominee Captain Phillips. Only problem: for a movie to be nominated for Best Picture, we have to see it.
All of the other leading contenders are/will be prominently promoted on a streaming platform or have generated significant buzz at film festivals. News of the World will have a “theatrical release” in December with no plans to be distributed to a wider audience that can actually see it. Academy members could nominate it based on screener viewings, but it feels bizarre to think they would nominate a movie that no audience will actually have seen.
So, I’m going with eight for now. But there is still a long ways to go.
leading contenders
Da 5 Bloods
Release Date: June 12
Spike Lee’s latest film might be the biggest he’s ever made; Da 5 Bloods stretches about as far from Brooklyn as you can get. It also happens to be a masterpiece, and a vital historical corrective. For his role as Paul, Delroy Lindo is an early contender for Best Actor.
Hillbilly Elegy
Release Date: November 24
Another Netflix movie, Hillbilly Elegy seems like a safe bet: director Ron Howard is a Hollywood stalwart, and the film is based on a bestselling, and controversial (and bad, in this writer’s opinion), memoir by J.D. Vance. It also stars the leaders in earning Oscar nominations without winning: Amy Adams and Glenn Close.
Mank
Release Date: December 4
David Fincher’s first feature film since Gone Girl is set to hit Netflix this fall. Mank tells the story of Herman Mankiewicz as he writes the screenplay for Orson Welles’ Citizen Kane. It’s the sort of inside Hollywood fodder the Academy loves, from one of the best directors on the planet. Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried star.
Minari
Release Date: TBD
Minari is the biggest outside shot on this list, and it’s unclear when we will see the movie at all. It stars Steven Yeun as the patriarch of a Korean family that moves to Arkansas in the 1980s. A24 should have something contending for Best Picture, and the overwhelming praise this movie has received from festival-goers suggests Minari will be worthy.
Nomadland
Release Date: December 4
Nomadland hit the fall festivals with universal praise and has quickly positioned itself as the frontrunner for Best Picture. The film follows a woman in financial ruin who joins a nomadic community that travels the country in the vans they live in. Director Chloé Zhao is a true talent and the exact sort of voice the Academy claims to be trying to prioritize; she’s also a Hollywood favorite, set to direct Marvel’s The Eternals in 2021. I have a hard time seeing Nomadland not getting nominated.
One night in miami
Release Date: January 15, 2021
Another winner of the fall festivals, this feature directorial debut from Regina King centers on a discussion between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke, and Jim Brown about the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s. The performances are expected to be superb and the film was bought by Amazon, meaning it will be able to reach a wide audience.
The Father
Release Date: December 18
Strong early buzz out of Sundance for this drama starring Academy favorites Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins. The film centers on a man refusing care from his daughter as he ages; it’s the sort of plot tailor-made for emotional Oscar-bait speeches.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Release Date: October 16
Yep, another Netflix movie. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the latest from writer-director Aaron Sorkin. The cast is outstanding, and a film about social unrest and a presidential nominating convention during an election year is sure to catch the Academy’s attention.
Others to Keep an eye on
Ammonite (November 13)
Cherry (TBD)
C’mon C’mon (TBD)
Good Joe Bell (TBD)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (November 27)
News of the World (December 25)
On the Rocks
Pieces of a Woman (TBD)
Soul (November 20)
Tenet
The Little Things (January 29, 2021)
The Midnight Sky (TBD)