2023 Oscars: Every prediction, right here, all at once
By Jake Skubish, Sam Coutu, and Audrey Altmann
The Oscars are back, and after the Will Smith disaster last year the Academy is bringing back Jimmy Kimmel as host to try to right the ship. What’s that, you say? Kimmel hosted when they announced the wrong movie as the Best Picture winner? Well, who knows what will happen.
I sure don’t! Amid all the campaigning and manufactured storylines and horse race journalism, I think it’s been lost just how great of an Oscars year this is. It is Oscars weekend, and the race for three of the four acting categories are up in the air. The frontrunner for Best Picture is a wild sci-fi epic led by an Asian cast, the sort of movie that has never even come close to Best Picture in the past. The other movies it is competing against (Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, The Banshees of Inisherin) range from massive blockbuster to independent drama, and most of the nominees are genuinely great.
The frontrunner for Original Song comes from an Indian Tollywood film, and is an absolute banger. (If the Academy is smart, they’ll start the show with “Naatu Naatu” and bring the house down.) The animated feature winner will come from auteur Guillermo del Toro, who made a great film, and it’s not even the best one in the category.
I could go on, but my point is: Enjoy it while it lasts. The Academy will inevitably anoint another Green Book and have everyone grumbling about how out of touch they are. But this year, they got it right.
We’re going to try to get it right too. I destroyed Sam last year 18-13. He claims he is picking with his heart this year, but I think we all know that means he’s just preparing an excuse for an impending loss. Great to see Audrey back in the prediction game after she failed to submit her picks last year.
THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
JS: Women Talking
The screenplay categories are typically where the best movies get their due, and this year is no exception. I can’t get over the vitality and poetic power of Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s vision in taking a harrowing subject and making it replete with both sadness and hope is astounding. It was fascinating to hear her on Marc Maron’s podcast talking about how she sees this movie as being about, among other things, democracy — how the process of debating people with whom you disagree is essential. The fact that she makes this process exciting and moving, too, is a triumph. I really hope we get to see her on stage Sunday.
SC: Women Talking
I will say I am going from my heart this time around. I’m done trying to predict what a bunch of schmucks will choose to win. This year, I’m simply selecting the movies and performances I think deserve to win, in part to honor the fact that this is a great field. How often do nominees like this come around? Anyway, I really thought Women Talking was so, so well done, with a bunch of standout performances bringing it to life. But it is the stunning screenplay itself that makes it work.
AA: Women Talking
I really wish this film had gotten more attention this awards season, especially the performances of the stellar cast. Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and Ben Whishaw each brought me to tears with the help of Sarah Polley’s excellent script adaptation of Miriam Toews’ 2018 novel. Like Jake said already, the truly great movies often get a win in this category, and I’m hoping that is the case for Women Talking.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
JS: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Emphasis on the word original. It’s almost a cliché to say at this point, but there hasn’t ever really been an Oscar frontrunner like this one, with a narrative prominently featuring hot dog fingers, the multiverse, and butt plugs. Still, Everything Everywhere All at Once possesses enough conventionality in its emotional arc to be satisfying to stodgy Oscar voters. If I had a vote, though, I’d be going with The Banshees of Inisherin.
SC: The Banshees of Inisherin
My favorite movie of the year (Tár is a close second), honestly pretty close to my perfect movie. It’s just so funny, and so sad. It includes my favorite joke of the year, too — the bread truck tragedy.
AA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Daniels are truly unique filmmakers with a distinct style and voice, which are perfectly demonstrated in this film. There are so many moments in this movie that move you — either to laughter or tears — that can only be accomplished successfully by insightful and dedicated writers. Since I saw the movie nearly a year ago, one line in particular has stuck with me. That one line is enough for me to pick Everything Everywhere All at Once here. “So, even though you have broken my heart yet again, I wanted to say, in another life, I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
JS: Ke Huy Quan
Nothing much to say here — it’s a very good performance, and this is the strongest lock of the night. Instead of further analysis, please enjoy these photos of Ke Huy Quan and Steven Spielberg, decades apart.
SC: Barry Keoghan
This is the first pick where I know I have no shot. Ke Huy Quan gave a great performance, and has a great story. But Barry went up against two heavyweights and stole the show. He’ll certainly have more nominations and wins in his very bright movie star future. This year, though? Well, there goes that dream.
AA: Ke Huy Quan
I have cried every single time Ke Huy Quan has made a beautifully moving acceptance speech during this awards season. I expect Sunday will be no different. I have such a personal soft spot for his character Data from The Goonies, which is a true comfort movie of mine, and I am in awe of this man’s acting journey over the past four decades. This would be a well-earned win for an exceptional performance, and I look forward to cheering him on this weekend!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
JS: Kerry Condon
A modest upset pick here. This category has been all over the place: Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe (and did the thing), Condon won the BAFTA, and Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG Award. The SAG is highly predictive; only once in the past decade has the winner not gone on to win the Oscar (Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place), and that year’s winner (Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk) wasn’t even nominated for a SAG Award. And yet! I think Condon has a chance, as Bassett/Curtis are relatively weak frontrunners. There’s a lot of Banshees love in the Academy, and it could manifest here while losing in most other categories.
SC: Stephanie Hsu
Can we discuss for a second how insane it is that Jamie Lee Curtis is nominated, and how she’s more likely to win than Hsu? In what universe did Curtis give a better performance? Because of the funny hot dog finger schtick? Hsu was great, and Everything should of course get some big wins from the Academy. No better spot than here, in one of the more open-ended big categories.
AA: Angela Bassett
Angela Bassett is a Hollywood legend with a powerful role in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. With the tragic absence of Chadwick Boseman’s King T’Challa, Bassett’s Queen Ramonda is the convincing emotional center to a movie that is ultimately burdened with the need for too much CGI and punching. Even known Marvel-hater Jake Skubish would have to admit that Bassett gives a beautiful performance that is certainly born out of real-life grief for her friend and colleague.
BEST ACTOR
JS: Brendan Fraser
This is a very close race. After a long campaign Austin Butler has emerged as a slight frontrunner, according to GoldDerby. Elvis was terrible but Butler was terrific in it, and I selected him in the Movie Star Draft three years ago when no one else believed in him. His win would be a win for me, too. But I have to go with my gut and pick Fraser, who recently won the SAG Award. Everyone loves him, the comeback narrative is strong, and I think the stink of Elvis might draw away just enough votes from Butler.
SC: Colin Farrell
I will die before I pick a Jake Skubish movie star pick to win best actor, and I haven’t watched Brendan Fraser’s performance either. I doubt it would surpass Farrell’s absolute stunner, though. I read this — I can’t remember where — but it’s totally true: you could watch the movie on mute and understand everything from just how expressive Farrell is throughout.
AA: Austin Butler
As we have learned from the Skooby Watches Movies annual Movie Star Draft, I am first and foremost a businesswoman. Elvis is personally one of the worst movies I have watched in recent years, but Butler is out there campaigning his butt off and committing to this absurd new voice he has taken on in the wake of the film. He’s a rising star, and certainly isn’t the worst part of this biopic schlock I had to watch for 2 HOURS AND 39 MINUTES. I’m annoyed, but my gut says we’ll see him up on that stage Sunday.
BEST ACTRESS
JS: Michelle Yeoh
Just 20 minutes into Tár I knew Cate Blanchett would be a frontrunner for Best Actress; by the end of the film I was certain that she would win. So it is baffling that she now seems likely to lose. It’s still a tight race — Yeoh and Blanchett both won Golden Globes, Blanchett won the BAFTA, and Yeoh won the SAG Award. But I get the sense that Blanchett simply doesn’t want to win the Oscar. She’s out here campaigning for Andrea Riseborough, doing interviews with Yeoh praising her work, and demurring about her own prodigious talents. It seems like she would be embarrassed to win another one and is trying to pass the accolade off to a first-time winner. A lovely sentiment, if true, and Yeoh deserves the honor. But Blanchett’s work in Tár is one of the truly great performances I’ve ever seen.
SC: Cate Blanchett
I mean c’mon, this is the performance of the year. She was so incredible. I am in awe of Lydia. Despite the nastiness, she is elegance personified.
AA: Michelle Yeoh
Another film legend whose star power has exploded in the past few years. It’s been a joy to see her prominently featured in major Hollywood films these past few years and show mainstream audiences everything that she can do. I loved her as Evelyn Wang in Everything Everywhere All At Once, especially in scenes where she gets to dig deep with Ke Huy Quan’s Waymond and Stephanie Hsu’s Joy/Jobu Tupaki. And it goes without saying, but a win for an Asian woman in this category would be historic and personally meaningful to this young Asian American woman who loves the movies.
BEST DIRECTOR
JS: Daniels
Sorry to repeat myself, but I would have gone with the Tár entry in this category over the Everything Everywhere All at Once entry. Todd Field brings an unbelievable level of precision to the screen, crafting a film that only gets more interesting on rewatch. What Daniels pulled off is impressive, though, and it will be a much deserved win. Still, I have to get something off my chest: The whole “Daniels” thing is a little bit annoying. Yes, we know you have the same name. But the fact that they’ve imposed this brand on all of us? That they gave themselves this nickname? I don’t care for it.
SC: Daniels
I almost went Martin McDonagh here, I really did. Part of me wanted to, that’s for damn sure. But Everything Everywhere All at Once was an absolutely stunning film, with huge ideas that could’ve ended up a bloated mess in other hands.
AA: Steven Spielberg
This was the pick that I felt sure about when I first saw the movie, but I have become uncertain as the Oscars campaigning season has continued. I had to pick with my heart on this one, though. The Fabelmans is another movie with dynamic performances that I wish more people had seen since it was released last fall. It is a deeply personal film about family, art, science, and the power of combining all three. It’s an achievement that few other directors would be able to pull off as skillfully as Spielberg. He proved again why he’s one of our greatest filmmakers, and I hope the Academy rewards his for this emotional and technical feat.
BEST PICTURE
JS: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Somehow, this bizarre sci-fi film became one of the strongest Best Picture frontrunners in recent Oscars history. It will win, and it will be a great moment. This is a great movie in a field full of them. What a year for the Oscars! One other trend I find interesting: This will be the fourth straight Best Picture winner set in the present. Many Best Picture winners of the past have been, well, set in the past, so I’ll be looking to see if this trend continues.
SC: The Banshees of Inisherin
I don’t care, I’m right!! I’ve gushed over this film in several categories already, and it just is my favorite work of the year. I knew it the second I watched it at the Toronto Film Festival, and it has remained in that top spot since. It has so many moments, both big and small, that will stay with me for a long time.
AA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
For the first time ever I have watched all of the nominees for Best Picture before the ceremony! A personal victory that is certainly on par with the famous and acclaimed people nominated for these awards. This year, I would be genuinely happy if nearly any of them took home the top prize. But this year is unlikely to have an unexpected winner. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a lock, and yet again, this businesswoman came to beat Jake and Sam — as well as help my father when his workplace’s predictions contest.
THE OTHER CATEGORIES
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
JS: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
SC: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Now THIS is cinema.
AA: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
CINEMATOGRAPHY
JS: All Quiet on the Western Front
SC: All Quiet on the Western Front
AA: All Quiet on the Western Front
COSTUME DESIGN
JS: Elvis
SC: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
AA: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
JS: Navalny
SC: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
AA: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
JS: Stranger at the Gate
SC: Stranger at the Gate
AA: Stranger at the Gate
FILM EDITING
JS: Everything Everywhere All at Once
SC: Everything Everywhere All at Once
AA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
JS: All Quiet on the Western Front
SC: All Quiet on the Western Front
It should be Broker.
AA: All Quiet on the Western Front
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
JS: Elvis
SC: Elvis
I liked Elvis, and I don’t care who knows.
AA: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
ORIGINAL SCORE
JS: Babylon
If this does not win I will be devastated.
SC: Babylon
AA: Babylon
ORIGINAL SONG
JS: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Naaaatu naatu naatu naatu naatu naatu naatu naatu! Naatu!
SC: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
AA: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
PRODUCTION DESIGN
JS: Elvis
Babylon is the favorite on GoldDerby, but I just don’t trust good things to happen for the best movie of the year.
SC: Babylon
AA: All Quiet on the Western Front
ANIMATED SHORT
JS: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
What a travesty. The worst one by far.
SC: Ice Merchants
I would die before I pick that absolute embarrassment of The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. Watching that short ruined my entire day. Week, even.
AA: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
LIVE ACTION SHORT
JS: Le Pupille
Again, the worst short looks likely to win. Disney produced it — it’s all a popularity contest, folks.
SC: The Red Suitcase
Has really stuck with me. Also, I’m sure I’ve said this before, but we need multiple short categories. It’s a different world for sub 20-minute shorts and those that approach 40 minutes. It’s not right.
AA: Le Pupille
SOUND
JS: All Quiet on the Western Front
SC: Top Gun: Maverick
AA: All Quiet on the Western Front
VISUAL EFFECTS
JS: Avatar: The Way of Water
SC: Top Gun: Maverick
I have decided to boycott anything Avatar-related for the rest of my life because of the atrocity that is the end of Babylon. This boycott naturally extends to award show picks.
AA: Avatar: The Way of Water