2022 Oscars predictions: Who will win an extremely close Best Picture race?

By Jake Skubish and Peter Coutu

The week before the Academy Awards is often anticlimactic: Everybody makes their predictions for the night’s winners at a point when many of those winners are a foregone conclusion. In 2019, when Laura Dern, Brad Pitt, Renée Zellweger, and Joaquin Phoenix won the acting awards, all of those wins were obvious for weeks. (This did not stop me from stupidly picking Florence Pugh to upset Dern.)

This year, though, things are different. Two of the acting wins are up for grabs, the screenplay awards are totally unpredictable, and the race between CODA and The Power of the Dog is the closest Best Picture race in recent memory.

So I have once again asked Peter Coutu to join me in predicting every Oscars category. To make things a little more interesting this year we are including the odds from GoldDerby, and we will award ourselves more points for correctly picking underdogs. Then we will determine a winner after the ceremony based on these points. This will hopefully help us avoid last year’s situation, when Peter and I tied. Certainly can’t let that happen again.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

JS: CODA (16/5 odds, favorite)

CODA is the odds-on favorite in this category, and I don’t fully understand why. I like CODA well enough; it’s a charming film. But its strengths lie in the music and performances much more than anything going on with its conventional story. It may be the least-good nomination in the entire category. Still, I’m picking it to win simply because people really seem to love CODA, and Academy voters will want to reward the film in a major category like this one. If it were my choice, though, Dune would be riding a sandworm to victory here.

PC: CODA (16/5 odds, favorite)

If we’re in the trust tree, I’ll admit that I’m picking this because Jake did. Now sure, that might be against the rules. That might be against the spirit of the competition. But I want to solely claim the win this year, so I have to be more strategic. I don’t want to diverge from the consensus unless I’m confident. Unless it’s going to seal the deal.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

JS: Belfast (69/20 odds, favorite)

Similar to my CODA pick, I’m going with Belfast here because I think people just really like Kenneth Branagh. A couple other factors working in its favor: It’s a personal story, which Oscar voters love, and Branagh has never won an Oscar despite being an industry power player for decades. But man oh man would I be happy if The Worst Person in the World could pull off the upset. Easily the best screenplay here, and one of my favorites of all time.

PC: The Worst Person in the World (9/2 odds, 4th favorite)

Here we go. A dog. The Worst Person in the World was fantastic — everyone loves it! It should get some love, so I’m planning to slot it into a few different categories and reap the rewards when it picks up an award or two. I want to predict a sweep, to be honest, since it’s that good.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JS: Troy Kotsur, CODA (3/1 odds, favorite)

This is a lock. Kotsur will win for a great performance, and he will give a funny and moving acceptance speech, and it will be a heartwarming Oscars moment, and everyone will be happy.

PC: Troy Kotsur, CODA (3/1 odds, favorite)

Boring. It’s a lock. Nothing else has long enough odds to make it interesting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

JS: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (31/10 odds, favorite)

Ariana DeBose was recently on Marc Maron’s podcast as part of her Oscar campaign, and let me tell you: What an incredibly charming individual! Going into West Side Story the conventional wisdom was that the film would be the kickoff of the Rachel Zegler ascension to the A-list of Hollywood, but DeBose may end up being the film’s true breakout movie star. Her next two movies listed on IMDb are a blockbuster with Henry Cavill and a blockbuster with Russell Crowe, so it certainly seems like this is where she is headed. Her win here is going to announce her as one of Hollywood’s next big stars.

PC: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (31/10 odds, favorite)

To be honest, I had Dunst until the last second. I think it’s a smart bet, still. She could win. But she is too much of a long shot for the payoff I’d get from the odds. The math doesn't check out.

BEST ACTOR

JS: Will Smith, King Richard (31/10 odds, favorite)

A tricky thing about Oscars prognostication: Since the Academy dramatically expanded the voting body in 2016, all indicators prior to that point are a little less reliable. From 2004-2015, the winner of the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actor also won the Oscar. But from 2016-2020, the two awards split twice. That’s why I don’t necessarily think Smith is a runaway here, even though he is the favorite. People love the Cumberbatch performance, and he’s also never won an Oscar; I would not at all be surprised if he won. But Smith also won the BAFTA Award, and the BAFTAs are notorious for failing to even nominate Black actors in many years. It’s a strong sign that the industry is behind Smith. So am I.

PC: Will Smith, King Richard (31/10 odds, favorite)

The smart money is on Andrew Garfield, but I think this one goes to Will Smith. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else — can’t explain it!

BEST ACTRESS

JS: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (16/5 odds, favorite)

The bellwether awards in advance of the Oscars have been scattered for this category, leading prognosticators to see this as a somewhat of an open race. Not to me. This is lock city. Colman, Cruz, and Kidman have already won Oscars, while there doesn’t seem to be any momentum for Kristen Stewart’s oddball performance as Princess Diana in Spencer. Everyone loves Chastain, she’s one of the very best actors of the past decade, and she deserves an Oscar (albeit not for this performance). I wouldn’t be mad if Stewart pulled off the upset, though. I thought every acting choice she made in Spencer contributed to a unique realization of a well-known figure, and she has been an amazing actress for a long time now.

PC: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (9/2 odds, 5th favorite)

Ok, this is where things get interesting. If we were picking straight up winners, I’d go Chastain. Jake explains some smart points — hell, he almost convinced me! — but Jake is a dummy. Kidman gives me 9/2 odds on GoldDerby, and is tied with Penelope Cruz for most unlikely. But I’ve seen her listed as second in other places, and nearly a tossup with Chastain. That’s value I just can’t pass up!

BEST DIRECTOR

JS: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (31/10 odds, favorite)

Yes, the comments comparing herself to Serena and Venus Williams were not ideal. But I ultimately don’t think it will matter at all. Campion is the runaway winner here. And even though I didn’t love the movie, I did respect the craft. My personal pick would be for Paul Thomas Anderson for making another masterpiece in Licorice Pizza.

PC: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (9/2 odds, 4th favorite)

Big, big underdog. Two main reasons. One, the Williams comparison was not great. The Academy can’t risk that kind of moment, and it might have soured some voters on Campion too. Two, Drive my Car was the better flick, and boy was it a director’s flick. Hamaguchi gets the award and, perhaps more importantly, I’ll be handsomely rewarded for the accurate underdog pick.

BEST PICTURE

JS: The Power of the Dog (15/2 odds, 2nd favorite)

Best Picture is the closest race of the night, which makes this an exciting Oscar year. Honestly, this might be the closest Best Picture race I can remember; CODA and The Power of the Dog are a toss-up as frontrunners, and there are even a few films beyond those that I wouldn’t be totally shocked about winning given the ranked choice voting the Oscars uses for Best Picture. CODA won the Producers Guild Award, and has all of the momentum. But I can’t get over the fact that it only has three nominations overall, which would be highly unusual for a Best Picture winner. CODA is a nice story, but I think The Power of the Dog is going to survive this late-game run and pull out the win.

PC: CODA (6/1 odds, favorite)

Momentum isn’t real, but I’m still siding with the flick that has some juice behind it. The odds for CODA have surged over recent weeks, though it’s still about even with The Power of the Dog. It’s a fun race. CODA, to be honest, seems like the classic film that the average person points to when saying the Academy always gets it wrong. The kind of film people would say, “Does anyone really think that should win?” All the more reason it’ll win!

THE OTHER CATEGORIES

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

JS: The Mitchells vs. the Machines (4/1 odds, 3rd favorite)

The Encanto wave is overhyped, and Mitchells won the animators’ industry award. Give me the upset.

PC: Encanto (31/10 odds, favorite)

Another dumb choice by Jake!

CINEMATOGRAPHY

JS: West Side Story (9/2 odds, 4th favorite)

PC: Dune (16/5 odds, favorite)

COSTUME DESIGN

JS: Cruella (31/10 odds, favorite)

PC: Dune (4/1 odds, 2nd favorite)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

JS: Summer of Soul (31/10 odds, favorite)

PC: Summer of Soul (31/10 odds, favorite)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

JS: Audible (4/1 odds, 3rd favorite)

PC: Three Songs for Benazir (4/1 odds, 2nd favorite)

FILM EDITING

JS: Dune (7/2 odds, favorite)

PC: Tick Tick ... Boom! (9/2 odds, 4th favorite)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

JS: Drive My Car (31/10 odds, favorite)

PC: Drive My Car (31/10 odds, favorite)

Jake hated this movie, which makes him the real loser.

Editor’s note: Jake did not hate this movie, he thought it was just okay and pretty slow.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

JS: The Eyes of Tammy Faye (31/10 odds, favorite)

PC: Cruella (4/1 odds, 3rd favorite)

ORIGINAL SCORE

JS: Dune (16/5 odds, favorite)

PC: Dune (16/5 odds, favorite)

ORIGINAL SONG

JS: “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (10/3 odds, favorite)

PC: “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (37/10 odds, 2nd favorite)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

JS: Dune (82/25 odds, favorite)

PC: Nightmare Alley (19/5 odds, 2nd favorite)

ANIMATED SHORT

JS: Robin Robin (16/5 odds, favorite)

PC: The Windshield Wiper (4/1 odds, 2nd favorite)

Looked so stunning! If Bestia wins, I will take a three-year break from watching movies. And that is a promise!

LIVE ACTION SHORT

JS: The Long Goodbye (10/3 odds, favorite)

PC: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run (4/1 odds, 2nd favorite)

We could argue about whether it is truly fair to compare movies that are so different in length, but Take and Run just had characters that were so much more fully fleshed out than any other movie in this category. An absolute home run.