Oscars 2020 predictions: We hope it doesn’t turn out like this

By Jake Skubish

It’s shaping up to be a boring, predictable year at the Oscars. All of the guild awards are going chalk, and 1917 is poised to dominate. But could there be more upsets than prognosticators are anticipating? Our expert panel certainly thinks so! Check out all the picks from Audrey Altmann, Peter Coutu, Cason Cleveland, and myself that will probably look foolish after Sunday night’s ceremony.

The Big Six Categories

Best Actor

JS: Joaquin Phoenix

Phoenix has won all the industry awards, making him the odds-on favorite. Perhaps more importantly, though, he’s one of a handful of actors who have been nominated at least four times and never won. Fellow actors love him, and I think he’ll take home the prize for this awful performance. At least the acceptance speech will be good.

PC: Joaquin Phoenix 

Joaquin Phoenix is the clear frontrunner, winning all the major industry awards leading up to the Oscars. JS, who, for the record, I’ve been dominating in our box office betting matchups, is right in his pick but very wrong in his blurb. I loved Phoenix’s performance because it was terrific, and I liked the movie a fair amount too.
Editor’s note: JS has beaten PC in betting on the Oscars two years running.

AA: Joaquin Phoenix

I will simply quote Phoenix’s acceptance speech from the SAG Awards: "I'm standing here on the shoulders of my favorite actor, Heath Ledger."

P.S.: I truly hope he pulls a repeat of the Golden Globes and chooses to toss the statue on the ground after winning and stand in silence while telepathically communicating with Rooney Mara, the mother of his child and a fellow talented weirdo.

CC: Joaquin Phoenix

Who is the joke on? Society, or the man acting in a society? Joker is about mental illness through the lens of an anti-hero, and Phoenix’s portrayal of mental illness in this movie is sublime. His work on the other side of the camera makes him the favorite choice among actors and producers alike. Terrible movie, great performance.

Best Actress

JS: Renée Zellweger

I haven’t seen Judy, and neither has anybody else. But by all accounts Zellweger is really good in the movie, and a celebration of Judy Garland hits the sweet spot for many of the Academy’s older voters. It’s a dull, classic Oscars-y selection, but I don’t think Zellweger has any close challengers here.

PC: Renée Zellweger

Can’t say I’ve seen or heard of Judy, but this seems like the obvious pick, with Renée Zellweger nabbing wins in the other big awards beforehand. She has one Academy Award, but only for best supporting actress, despite two nominations in the main category. I’m not sure there is a close second place finisher, but I’d probably pick Cynthia Erivo as the runner up. 

AA: Saoirse Ronan

Look, I’m trying to be realistic this year and pick with accuracy, but I’m still a human woman. This pick is just because I want nice things. I love Saoirse, and she deserves an Oscar. Wouldn’t it be nice to reward a young actress (who’s already been nominated three times for stellar performances) for one of her best roles yet?

CC: Saoirse Ronan

Times are shifting. Tides will turn. This is the year the younger generation will start to spurn the classic go-to choice of winners. Zellweger’s performance in Judy is, by far, the front runner in the Academy’s eyes, but Saoirse Ronan is the dark horse coming for the throne as the best leading actress of a generation. 

Best Supporting Actor

JS: Brad Pitt

I consider this one the strongest lock in any category. Pitt is campaigning hard, and like Phoenix, he’s been nominated four times without a win. This is also the rare favorite that I think should win, too; Cliff Booth is an all-time character and Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood wouldn’t work without Pitt’s charm.

PC: Brad Pitt 

Give me Brad Pitt shirtless on a roof in sunny Los Angeles or give me death. I LOVED Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, and I think Pitt was the driving force behind the best parts of the film. He’s been campaigning well, which will hopefully help correct the travesty that is Pitt never winning an Academy Award for acting before. 

AA: Brad Pitt

Our guy is out here reuniting with Jennifer Aniston, making Tinder jokes, and just generally reminding the public that he’s still a great actor—and he’s still hot. I can’t imagine a scenario where any other nominees beat this level of campaigning.

CC: Brad Pitt

Campaign, campaign, campaign. That is the story of this year’s winner for supporting actor. Not only did Pitt give a captivating, exciting, and screen-stealing performance as a supporting actor to an A-list cast. he was also the hardest working nominee after the movie to rally support for the Oscar. Sure-fire winner in this category.

Best Supporting Actress

JS: Florence Pugh

By far my biggest upset pick; on Gold Derby Pugh is currently tracking as the 4th favorite, and as far back as the site has been setting odds the 4th favorite has never won an acting category. So this is probably dumb, and probably because of my love for Pugh. But I really think it might happen! As seen with Alicia Vikander and Lupita Nyong’o’s wins in recent years, this category sometimes goes to the rising starlet. And the Academy clearly likes Pugh; she wasn’t nominated for a SAG but was nominated here. I hope I’m right.

PC: Laura Dern

I finished Marriage Story minutes before making these picks, so I might be suffering from recency bias, but I thought Laura Dern was terrific in it. She was the best part in a very good movie—despite what others have said about it in this chat!—and Dern seems to be having a bit of a moment, so I’m going with her. 

AA: Laura Dern

Honesty time: I could only sit through about 30 minutes of Marriage Story before I got bored and gave up. This means I only really saw one scene with Dern. Critics loved this performance, Dern has won several awards already, and she is Hollywood acting royalty, so I have to pick her to win.

CC: Margot Robbie

The most contention of any of the major categories. I bounced back and forth between the front runner Laura Dern, Robbie, and Johansson, all for different reasons on this choice. In the end I had to go with Robbie because of her performance in Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. You read that right. She wins best supporting actress for the movie she wasn’t nominated for.

Best Director

JS: Sam Mendes

The Oscar for best directing might more accurately be called the Oscar for most directing; the movie with the showiest display of camerawork often takes this prize. And while I think Bong Joon-ho might have pulled off the most intricately constructed movie of the year, Mendes can parade around his meaningless one-shot magic trick.

PC: Bong Joon-ho

I know Sam Mendes might be the favorite, but that’s dumb. Bong Joon-ho pulled off a much tougher feat with Parasite than what the other four directors did with their flicks. I also want him to win, and I’d rather root for justice than another robbery! I loved 80 percent of the movies in this category, but the choice is clear. 

AA: Bong Joon-ho

This pick is primarily motivated by last year’s Green Book nonsense. The Academy awarded master director Alfonso Cuarón for directing Roma, but ultimately the foreign language film wasn’t given the ultimate prize of Best Picture. I think history is set to repeat itself this year. Parasite was beloved by Film Twitter and the #BongHive is strong, so I am hopeful that he gets to be on stage with my new favorite translator Sharon Choi to accept this award.

CC: Sam Mendes 
“HEY EVERYONE! WATCH THIS MOVIE THAT IS ALL DONE IN ONE SHOT!” 

Straight-up lies! It is at least two shots. JS practically stole my words for this pick. I personally would want Bong Joon-ho to win for crafting one of the most “on the edge of your seat” movies that has ever crossed the silver screen. Mendes has the headline, though, which is what the Academy goes for. 

Best Picture

JS: Parasite

Last year I picked Roma to win Best Picture, and I hesitate to get burned by picking the foreign language film two years in a row. But there’s so much more energy around Parasite, and I think it has support among all sections of the Academy. There are four or five films in this field I think a lot of people loved, so while 1917 is the favorite, I don’t think it will be a majority of voters’ first choice. Meanwhile, I think Parasite will find its way onto most voters’ top two. This might look overly optimistic in hindsight. But Roma over Green Book was a hope; this is a genuine bet.

PC: Parasite

Parasite!!! What a movie. After last year’s fiasco—maybe a tad strong of a description, but what an underwhelming pick—I think the Academy gets it right this year and properly names Parasite as this year’s best film. My answer, I admit, is not the most educated. I never saw 1917, which seems to be a lame movie but still maybe the favorite? My dad loved the famously one-shot movie, though, which almost guarantees that it is not an Oscar-worthy flick. (I’ve learned from this chat that it wasn’t actually a single shot?) I think Parasite is the clear winner here, anyway. It’s the best movie since The Death of Stalin.

My number two pick: Once Upon a Time … In Hollywood. What a film that was. What a great year for movies, really. 

AA: 1917

Alright, this is my least favorite pick, but I also believe it is going to win. Instead of writing about why I think it will win, allow me to indulge in a rant I have been waiting to make for weeks.

I have several gripes with this movie, many of which have been included in other reviews of the movie—the plot conveniences, the beautification of war narratives, the odd cameos by British actors. My No. 1 issue with this movie has yet to be a wide topic of discussion: This movie is not one shot. *Spoiler alert for 1917* Lance Cpl. Schofield is unconscious half way through the film, and the camera is in an entirely new spot when he wakes up, meaning this movie is definitively two shots. To quote the text message I sent to my father after seeing this movie in the theater: “Sam Mendes is a fraud. This is the hill I will die on.”

CC: Parasite

One of the times ranked choice voting comes in clutch! If Parasite isn’t number one on your ballot, it is number two. I think 1917 will have a decent amount of the vote, but if it isn’t a first choice, it will be diluted by the array of great movies that have been nominated this year. Coming at a wonderful time in the peak of late-stage capitalism in America, Parasite allows for the insight of the negative drawbacks of a capitalist society, all while keeping the story personal and familial. Here is to hoping! 

The Other Categories

Animated Feature Film

JS: Toy Story 4

PC: Toy Story 4

AA: Toy Story 4

CC: Toy Story 4

Cinematography

JS: 1917

PC: 1917

AA: 1917

CC:1917

Costume Design

JS: Little Women

PC: Jojo Rabbit

AA: Little Women

CC: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

Documentary Feature

JS: American Factory

PC: For Sama

AA: Honeyland

CC: Honeyland

Documentary Short

JS: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone

PC: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone

AA: St. Louis Superman

CC: In the Absence 

Film Editing

JS: Ford v Ferrari

PC: Parasite

AA: The Irishman

CC: Ford v Ferrari

Foreign Language Film

JS: Parasite

PC: Parasite

AA: Parasite

CC: Parasite

Makeup and Hairstyling

JS: Bombshell

PC: Bombshell

AA: Bombshell

CC: Bombshell

Original Score

JS: Joker

PC: Joker

AA: Marriage Story

CC: 1917

Original Song

JS: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”

PC: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”

AA: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”

I’m breaking the blurb rule for the second year in a row to remind everyone that this should have been nominated for Original Song:

CC: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”

Production Design

JS: 1917

PC: Once Upon A Time ... In Hollywood

AA: Once Upon a Time ... In Hollywood

CC: 1917

Animated Short

JS: Hair Love

PC: Hair Love

AA: Hair Love

CC: Kitbull

Live Action Short

JS: Brotherhood

PC: Brotherhood

AA: Brotherhood

CC: Brotherhood

Sound Editing

JS: 1917

PC: 1917

AA: Ford v. Ferrari

CC: Ford v Ferrari

Sound Mixing

JS: 1917

PC: 1917

AA: Ford v. Ferrari

CC: Ford v Ferrari

Visual Effects

JS: The Lion King

PC: Avengers: Endgame

Feels like this movie came out a million years ago.
Editor’s note: PC probably wants to forget this movie because JS crushed him so badly betting on its box office return.

AA: Avengers: Endgame

CC: Avengers: Endgame

Adapted Screenplay

JS: Jojo Rabbit

PC: Jojo Rabbit

AA: Little Women

CC: Little Women

Original Screenplay

JS: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

PC: Parasite

AA: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood

CC: Parasite