Oscars 2021 Best Picture contenders: let’s talk about Netflix

By Jake Skubish

Nearly every Best Picture prediction list has, at this point, at least four Netflix films in its top ten. Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the leaders, with Hillbilly Elegy hanging on for dear life after being destroyed by critics. (For context: Green Book, a much maligned Best Picture contender and eventual winner, has a Metacritic score of 69. Hillbilly Elegy has a score of 39.)

The problem with these predictions is that the Academy Awards are not a meritocracy—they are an industry-run promotional event. The movies are art, but the event is business. And the industry is not going to allow a single studio, let alone a streaming service, to rack up half of the Best Picture nominations.

In fact, it seems unlikely they will get more than two. In the past decade, not a single studio has had a year in which it had more than two nominees for Best Picture. It just doesn’t happen. Obviously this year is different, but Hollywood is not going to cede power to Netflix overnight.

So from this point forward, my list is only going to contain, at most, two nominees from any given studio. I know Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is seen as a leading contender. But for now, I have it on the outside looking in.

Current predicted nominees

Mank

David Fincher’s first feature film since Gone Girl hit Netflix this month to rave reviews from critics and a positive reception from audiences. Mank tells the story of Herman Mankiewicz as he writes the screenplay for Orson Welles’ Citizen Kane. It’s an esoteric, inside-baseball Hollywood story that still carries plenty of intrigue even if you’ve never seen Kane. It’s also deeply cynical about Hollywood, and it will be interesting to see if the Academy takes kindly to that. Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried star.

Minari

Minari has been on the festival circuit for a while, but most audiences will not be able to see it until it expands in February 2021. It stars Steven Yeun as the patriarch of a Korean family that moves to Arkansas in the 1980s. A24 should have something contending for Best Picture, and the overwhelming praise this movie has received from festival-goers suggests Minari will be worthy.

Nomadland

Nomadland hit the fall festivals with universal praise and has quickly positioned itself as the frontrunner for Best Picture. The film follows a woman in financial ruin who joins a nomadic community that travels the country in the vans they live in. Director Chloé Zhao is a true talent and the exact sort of voice the Academy claims to be trying to prioritize; she’s also a Hollywood favorite, set to direct Marvel’s The Eternals in 2021. I have a hard time seeing Nomadland not getting nominated.

One night in miami

Another winner of the fall festivals, this feature directorial debut from Regina King centers on a discussion between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke, and Jim Brown about the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s. The performances are expected to be superb and the film was bought by Amazon, meaning it will be able to reach a wide audience.

The Father

Strong buzz for this drama starring Academy favorites Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins. The film centers on a man refusing care from his daughter as he ages; it’s the sort of plot tailor-made for emotional Oscar-bait speeches.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the latest from writer-director Aaron Sorkin. The cast is outstanding, and a film about social unrest and a presidential nominating convention during an election year is sure to capture the Academy’s attention.

Others to Keep an eye on

Ammonite

↓Da 5 Bloods

Judas and the Black Messiah

↓Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

News of the World

On the Rocks

↑Promising Young Woman

↑Soul

↑Sound of Metal

Tenet

The United States vs. Billie Holiday