Movie Star Draft IV: 'We're going to be drafting until we die'
Note: This draft was conducted on Nov. 24, 2023, before some of the draftees’ movies were widely released.
Jake Skubish: Welcome to year four of the Movie Star Draft, our fantasy competition for predicting the future A-listers of Hollywood. The biggest shortcoming of our game has been its fuzzy and inadequate method for determining winners: In the first three years, we ranked the other three teams ourselves. No longer. This year we've developed a concrete scoring system, and we now have a much clearer sense of how things stand.
The system has four main categories:
Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX): This “trading platform” (no real money is exchanged) gives us a metric to measure our rosters by assigning stock values to Hollywood actors. Actors on our teams get one point per $25 of value on HSX.
Audience Reception: One or three points for starring in a movie that gets a 7.5 on IMDb; two or five points for a movie that gets an 8.5 (minimum 50,000 ratings). For all of these categories, the higher or lower point value depends on whether you are a top-two or top-five billed actor in the movie.
Audience Reach: One or three points for starring in a movie that made $50-99 million at the domestic box office; two or five if it made $100 million or more. Bonus two or five points if it was a top 10 movie of the year at the box office. One or three points if the actor starred in a streaming movie that earned at least 100,000 ratings on IMDb.
Oscars: Five points for an Oscar nomination; 10 points for an Oscar win.
After applying this methodology to the first three years of the draft, it seems to pass the eye test as a reliable measure of stardom. Our total scores through the first three years:
| Audrey | 125.17 |
| Jake | 75.78 |
| Sam | 53.85 |
| Fran | 45 |
The results are clear: Audrey is crushing us. And this makes sense: She has the three most valuable draft picks so far. After crunching the numbers, here are the 25 most valuable movie stars we’ve selected through the first three years:
| Team | Movie Star | Total Value |
| Audrey | Mckenna Grace | 15.64 |
| Audrey | Gemma Chan | 14.13 |
| Audrey | Halle Bailey | 13.93 |
| Sam | Barry Keoghan | 13.59 |
| Sam | Richard Madden | 13.50 |
| Audrey | Lashana Lynch | 13.27 |
| Jake | Austin Butler | 13.21 |
| Audrey | Jodie Comer | 11.82 |
| Jake | Jenna Ortega | 10.37 |
| Jake | Anthony Ramos | 8.72 |
| Jake | Jonathan Majors | 8.39 |
| Audrey | Stephanie Hsu | 8.26 |
| Fran | Paul Mescal | 8.05 |
| Fran | Rachel Zegler | 7.90 |
| Sam | Kathryn Newton | 7.13 |
| Audrey | Yahya Abdul-Mateen II | 6.66 |
| Audrey | Noah Jupe | 6.64 |
| Audrey | Justice Smith | 6.59 |
| Audrey | Angourie Rice | 6.35 |
| Jake | Boyd Holbrook | 5.94 |
| Jake | Jessie Buckley | 5.85 |
| Audrey | Jack Quaid | 5.04 |
| Fran | Phoebe Waller-Bridge | 5.00 |
| Jake | Alexandra Shipp | 4.86 |
| Audrey | Teyonah Parris | 4.56 |
Mckenna Grace feels like an odd #1, but she was the top-billed star of the Ghostbusters reboot. Her standing at the top, however, was boosted by also being the top-billed voice in the Paw Patrol movie. By this time next year she may lose that top spot to #3 Halle Bailey, whose score does not yet reflect her role in the The Color Purple.
Other names seem likely to rise as well: Austin Butler will climb this chart with the points he scores from Dune: Part Two, and Paul Mescal should rise after Gladiator 2 comes out later this year. Jonathan Majors, on the other hand, is a likely candidate to fall off this list completely over time. For many of our draft picks, though, their trajectory is unpredictable. Jenna Ortega’s path forward is unclear since dropping out of the Scream franchise, and Rachel Zegler is mired in the troubled Snow White live-action remake production. That unpredictability is what makes this game fun, and why we keep coming back to do our silly little draft every year.
A couple of rule changes for this latest draft: We shortened the draft from 10 rounds to five, and made rounds six to 10 optional “add/drop” rounds. This means that we could add a new actor in those rounds, but only if we drop some else that we previously drafted. If we do drop someone, they become eligible for the other teams to draft. Let’s get into how this year’s draft played out.
Round 1
| Jake | Charles Melton |
| Fran | Reneé Rapp |
| Audrey | Ariana Greenblatt |
| Sam | Eve Hewson |
Jake Skubish: Am I allowed to take Charles Melton? I’ve seen May December already.
Audrey Altmann: I think it’s fine because it’s not widely released. And he’s definitely not the star.
Fran Swanson: Ok, I’m second. I’m going to go with Reneé Rapp.
JS: Ah, man. I had her really high on my list. I watched an interview with her, she’s so charismatic.
AA: She’s all over my TikTok.
FS: Yeah, I just feel like she’s got a lot going on.
AA: Alright, I’m going to go with Ariana Greenblatt. She was just in Barbie, and she is Young Gamora in the Marvel movies. So she’s done it all, but it hasn’t been in a starring role.
JS: And she was in 65, everyone’s favorite dinosaur movie starring Adam Driver.
Sam Coutu: My turn. I’m going to go with Eve Hewson.
JS: Another Nepo Baby.
AA: Whose kid is she?
JS: She’s Bono’s daughter.
FS: I like when people are like “So and so the Nepo Baby,” and her uncle was just like a camera grip on Jurassic Park 2.
Round 2
| Sam | Chase Sui Wonders |
| Audrey | Lamar Johnson |
| Fran | Matilda Lawler |
| Jake | Sophia Lillis |
AA: You’ve got another one, Sam.
SC: I know, I’m thinking.
FS: He’s trying to evaluate their moral character.
SC: I’m going to take Chase Sui Wonders.
AA: Also on my list.
JS: What was she in?
AA: Bodies Bodies Bodies. And then she dated Pete Davidson. Now she’s dating the guy from Stranger Things. Alright, for my pick, I’m going to take Lamar Johnson. He was in one episode of The Last of Us and I have never cried more in my entire life at a piece of media.
JS: You guys always take people that I’ve never even heard of.
AA: Because you don’t watch television.
FS: Ok, you know what? I’m going to go with, because I assume we’re going to be drafting until we die, Matilda Lawler, who played Young Kirsten in Station Eleven.
JS: I still need to see that. Fran also took Julia Butters in our first draft. Fran loves drafting the youngest possible actors.
FS: Yeah. Next I’m going to draft Gigi Hadid’s baby.
JS: Ok, I would like to take Sophia Lillis.
AA: How have we not picked her already?
JS: I know. I love Sophia Lillis. She was in Dungeons & Dragons and Asteroid City this year. Everyone wants to work with her.
Round 3
| Jake | David Corenswet |
| Fran | Christina Hendricks |
| Audrey | Ruby Cruz |
| Sam | Havana Rose Liu |
JS: Alright, my next pick is David Corenswet.
AA: Who the hell is that?
JS: You’ll know him soon as Superman.
AA: Oh, yeah. I hate that you did that, but it’s correct.
JS: And it’s not a totally random pick, because I did see him in Pearl and thought he was pretty good. I thought the movie was terrible, but he was good.
FS: He has a horrible last name. Corn sweat. Ok, I’m going to go with an actor who I think is going to have a movie renaissance after being very successful in television and then going kind of quiet for a while. But she’s coming back now. And that’s Christina Hendricks, who played Joan in Mad Men. I just rewatched Mad Men. She’s just so amazing.
JS: The best show ever made.
AA: I’m going to go with Ruby Cruz, who was the friend in Bottoms and just popped off the screen. She was so charismatic and so funny.
SC: I’ll take Havana Rose Liu, also from Bottoms.
Round 4
| Sam | Bella Ramsey |
| Audrey | Milo Manheim |
| Fran | Kristine Froseth |
| Jake | Jack Champion |
SC: And now I’ll go with Bella Ramsey.
JS: I’m surprised we haven’t drafted her before.
AA: Ok, I’m going to take Milo Manheim. He’s a Disney kid, and his mom is a famous television actress, Camryn Manheim. I saw him on a TV show on Paramount and thought he was incredible.
JS: This guy looks like he should be running a private equity firm.
FS: Ok, I’m going to go with Kristine Froseth, who is in The Buccaneers and was also in How to Blow Up a Pipeline.
JS: She’s really good. Ah man, I have like seven people I want to take. Can I take Auliʻi Cravalho?
AA: No, she’s Moana.
JS: Just the voice!
SC: I’m almost certain you’ve tried to take her before.
JS: Alright fine, I’ll take her off my list. I’m going to take Jack Champion instead.
SC: Who?
AA: He’s the kid in the new Avatar. And he was in Scream VI.
JS: Plus, his name is Jack Champion.
Round 5
| Jake | Joseph Quinn |
| Fran | Bridget Everett |
| Audrey | Josh Andrés Rivera |
| Sam | Rachel Brosnahan |
JS: I am picking a lot of men this year. And this one is a shameless pick, because I’ve never actually seen him in anything. But I have to take Joseph Quinn.
AA: From Stranger Things.
JS: His next two movies are the Quiet Place prequel and Gladiator 2.
AA: That’s a pretty safe bet, and he’s a decent actor.
FS: Ok, did you guys see the TV show Somebody Somewhere? I’m going to take Bridget Everett, she’s the comedian in it.
AA: Alright, I have my last pick. And I’m going to go with Josh Andrés Rivera. He’s in the Hunger Games prequel, and he was Chino in West Side Story. He’s also dating Rachel Zegler, so maybe she’ll bring him along for stuff.
JS: Sam, you’ve been awfully quiet over there.
SC: I’m trying to think about whether I can get away with this pick. Would I be able to pick Rachel Brosnahan?
AA: She’s really only been in Maisel, and then she’ll be Lois Lane with Jake’s Corenswet pick.
SC: I saw her in a play and she was good.
JS: I’m fine with it because I don’t like her at all. I think she stinks. You can take her.
Round 6
| Sam | Kaia Gerber (Dropping: Liu Yifei) |
| Audrey | PASS |
| Fran | Phoebe Bridgers (Dropping: Shaunette Renée Wilson) |
| Jake | Justin H. Min (Dropping: Grace Van Patten) |
JS: Ok, we’re back to Sam now if you want to swap anyone.
SC: Ok, let me open my list. I’ll drop Liu Yifei from Mulan and add Kaia Gerber.
JS: Wow, more Bottoms.
FS: I am going to swap out Shaunette Renée Wilson for Phoebe Bridgers, the singer and soon-to-be movie star.
JS: She has zero upcoming acting credits.
SC: Didn’t someone pick Bad Bunny before, too?
JS: I tried to.
AA: We shot it down.
SC: Jake’s always got one auto-reject from me.
JS: Ok, I’m going to drop this actress I took in our first year named Grace Van Patten. And I’m going to take Justin H. Min instead. He was in After Yang, and he’s really good.
FS: My team is now perfect with Phoebe Bridgers on it, so no more changes for me.
Round 7
| Jake | PASS |
| Fran | PASS |
| Audrey | PASS |
| Sam | Grace Van Patten (Dropping: Ferdia Shaw) |
SC: So, can I take Grace Van Patten now?
JS: You sure can.
SC: I’’ll take her, and I’ll drop Ferdia Shaw, who was in Artemis Fowl.
Round 8
| Sam | Dua Lipa (Dropping: Robert Aramayo) |
| Audrey | PASS |
| Fran | PASS |
| Jake | PASS |
JS: Sam, anyone else?
SC: Let me look through my team. I need to look up my people. I can’t remember who they are.
JS: I can’t believe you just took Grace Van Patten out of spite.
SC: It offers so much upside because if she hits, my god, that will feel so good.
JS: I would regret it so much.
SC: Ok, can I take Dua Lipa?
JS: Sure, you can take Dua Lipa.
AA: She was in Barbie. I guess we’ll see.
FS: I almost took her.
SC: And I will drop Robert Aramayo, from the Lord of the Rings TV series.
Final teams
| Jake | Fran | Audrey | Sam |
| Charles Melton | Reneé Rapp | Ariana Greenblatt | Eve Hewson |
| Sophia Lillis | Matilda Lawler | Lamar Johnson | Chase Sui Wonders |
| David Corenswet | Christina Hendricks | Ruby Cruz | Havana Rose Liu |
| Jack Champion | Kristine Froseth | Milo Manheim | Bella Ramsey |
| Joseph Quinn | Bridget Everett | Josh Andrés Rivera | Rachel Brosnahan |
| Justin H. Min (Dropped: Grace Van Patten) | Phoebe Bridgers (Dropped: Shaunette Renée Wilson) | PASS | Kaia Gerber (Dropped: Liu Yifei) |
| PASS | PASS | PASS | Grace Van Patten (Dropped: Ferdia Shaw) |
| PASS | PASS | PASS | Dua Lipa (Dropped: Robert Aramayo) |