Oscars 2021 predictions: Can anything beat 'Nomadland'?

By Jake Skubish

More than 14 months after the last Oscars, we’re finally back. Are many of the major categories locked up? Sure. Are all the best movies of the year represented at this ceremony? Not even close. But I love the Oscars, and I’m glad it’s back.

I also love betting against Peter Coutu, because that’s usually a winning venture. Somehow he managed to beat me by one pick last year. Strange. This is our fourth year predicting the Oscars, and I am up 51 to 48. Let’s extend that lead, shall we?

The Big Six Categories

Best Supporting Actor

JS: Daniel Kaluuya

As great as I think Kaluuya is in general, his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah is my fourth favorite in the field. Paul Raci gives the best performance here, bringing a beautiful calming energy to Sound of Metal. Leslie Odom, Jr. and LaKeith Stanfield are both very good as well, even though Stanfield should technically be in the lead actor category. But there’s no questioning this outcome: Kaluuya is the runaway favorite.

PC: Daniel Kaluuya

Before jumping right now, let me just say what a pleasure it is to be back. After a decisive and convincing victory last year, I have never been more confident. I smoked Jake in box office betting (and I will again when we resume); I demolished him in our March Madness pool; and I will humiliate him in this year’s Oscars picks. Our big six picks might look very similar, but money is made on the crumbs, by putting in the work for the categories most people (Jake) sleep through. 

Anyway, Daniel Kaluuya seems to be the runaway from this category. I reluctantly agree with Jake that Paul Raci is the real best performance of the year. I’d love to pick him, but can’t justify it.

Best Supporting Actress

JS: Yuh-Jung Youn

Yuh-Jung Youn made me laugh during Minari, and she seems to be charming people on the virtual awards circuit. I think she’ll eke out a win here. But she’s running against my favorite performance of the entire year: Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. What Bakalova goes for in Borat is courageous, challenging, and one of the best comedic debuts in years.

PC: Yuh-Jung Youn

I thought she was great, and everyone else kind of stunk if we’re being honest (I didn’t see the new Borat so I guess Bakalova is excluded). Although if Jake loved her work, I’m sure it was mediocre.

Best Actor

JS: Chadwick Boseman

It’s a shame this performance is shrouded in the cloud of posthumous requirements, because it’s genuinely one of the very best of the year, and probably the best of Boseman’s career. In an otherwise flat movie, Boseman pops off the screen. Whether he was making drivel like 21 Bridges or bringing the heat in great films like Da 5 Bloods (where the hell is that masterpiece at the Oscars?), Boseman was always a compelling screen presence.

PC: Chadwick Boseman

Lock city.

BEST ACTRESS

JS: Carey Mulligan

Hands down the closest race of the Oscars—I could easily see four of the nominees winning this category. My favorite of the bunch is McDormand, who gives a powerful, withdrawn performance in Nomadland that matches the film’s overall grace. She’s Oscars royalty, and that could carry her to a win. But I feel a rush of momentum behind Promising Young Woman. It has the sort of chaotic energy that engenders both love and hatred, and I think all the attention could net Mulligan her first Oscar.

PC: Viola Davis

Well here we go, finally a bit of dissent. It’s a shame Jake has copied my picks up until this point. Listen, I love Carey Mulligan and she was especially great in Promising Young Woman. She should win, and I would be happy if she did so—even if it gives Jake a lead. What a movie (more on that later). But Davis also delivered a stunning performance, and she has momentum. Opening at +1200, she has jumped up to +175, just a tick behind Mulligan. Might be even by the night of the awards. Davis was great, it’s a close race, and I’m picking my spots to put a little bit of distance between me and Jake.

Best Director

JS: Chloé Zhao

Zhao likely would have won no matter who was nominated, but she gets a boost by going up against a weak field. As an international film Another Round has little chance; the direction of Minari is not the film’s strength; Promising Young Woman has vision, but it’s also a mess; and despite its ten nominations, I don’t know many people out there with a passion for Mank. Zhao is easily winning this one.

PC: Chloé Zhao

So before I explain my pick, I want to rail against Jake. He simply does not know what he is talking about. Promising Young Woman is a mess? On what planet? Because on this one, it was the best flick of the year. Bad? That’s like missing the comedic genius of The Death of Stalin. What idiot would do that?? Anyway, Chloé Zhao is the absolutely massive favorite and I am going chalk here.

JS: Someday Peter and I will sit down and watch The Death of Stalin together. He can point out the moments I’m supposed to laugh. I missed them the first time around.

Best Picture

JS: Nomadland

Nomadland has won every major award in the run-up to the Oscars, which can sometimes prime voters to seek out an alternative out of boredom. But I think Nomadland has a little bit of something for everyone, and it’s palatable to every sector of the voting body. My personal choice would be for Sound of Metal, which has totally blown me away on multiple viewings. But I won’t be mad about a Nomadland win, either.

PC: Nomadland

All signs are pointing to Nomadland as an absolute no-brainer, as it enters the night as the big favorite. Maybe the second option is The Trial of the Chicago 7, which I didn’t particularly like so I will not be choosing. Chicago is host to mediocre movies and critics alike. If the Academy Awards were run as they should be—I have the sole vote for each and every category—the winner would be Promising Young Woman, which was a dynamite flick. Sadly, we live in an unjust world and I don’t get to pick.

The Other Categories

Animated Feature Film

JS: Soul

PC: Soul

Cinematography

JS: Nomadland

PC: Nomadland

Costume Design

JS: Emma

PC: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Emma should win a Razzie before an Academy Award, just an absolutely brutal picture. 

Documentary Feature

JS: My Octopus Teacher

PC: My Octopus Teacher

Documentary Short

JS: A Love Song for Latasha

PC: A Concerto Is a Conversation

Film Editing

JS: The Trial of the Chicago 7

PC: Sound of Metal

Not. Even. Close.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE Film

JS: Another Round

PC: Another Round

Makeup and Hairstyling

JS: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

PC: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Original Score

JS: Soul

PC: Soul

Original Song

JS: Húsavík

I do not feel great about this pick but I just have to say that “Húsavík” is a thousand times better than any other song in the field. I had to pick with my heart on this one.

PC: Speak Now

Production Design

JS: Mank

Mank is good!

PC: Mank

Guess this hunk of junk has to win something.

Animated Short

JS: If Anything Happens I Love You

PC: If Anything Happens I Love You

Absolutely the best category, once again.

Live Action Short

JS: The Letter Room

PC: The Present

Biggest upset of the night.

SounD

JS: Sound of Metal

PC: Sound of Metal

Visual Effects

JS: Tenet

Tenet freaking rules. It should have 10 Oscar nominations.

PC: The Midnight Sky

On principle, Tenet should not win anything. We cannot reward this type of bad behavior. We cannot let it stand.

Adapted Screenplay

JS: The Father

PC: Nomadland

Original Screenplay

JS: Promising Young Woman

PC: Promising Young Woman