2024 Oscars: The final ‘Barbenheimer’ showdown

By Jake Skubish and Sam Coutu

When the Oscars decided in 2009 to nominate more than five films for Best Picture, it kicked off the category expansion with a wonderfully diverse slate of movies. The lineup included the biggest box office hit ever (Avatar), an animated film (Up), a widely commercial sports movie (The Blind Side), a smash-hit Tarantino film (Inglourious Basterds), and a prestige war film (The Hurt Locker) that beat them all. It looked like a template for the future: Some auteur-driven work surrounded by a ton of critically and commercially successful films.

By the mid-2010s that model failed to replicate, though, as the Academy again and again anointed films with little audience interest. Films like Birdman and Moonlight came to exemplify the type of film that wins Best Picture, and there still has not been a Best Picture winner that has made $100 million at the domestic box office since Argo in 2012.

That is set to change in a big way this year, as the fifth biggest movie of the year, Oppenheimer, is going to run away with the award. It will go up against the number one movie of the year (Barbie), while the number three movie of the year (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse) is likely to win Best Animated Film. If the ratings are up and no one gets punched in the face, it could be a wake-up call for the Academy: Nominate the movies people saw and they might be interested in your awards show.

That’s my hope, anyway. No matter what the Academy does, one thing will be certain: I will destroy Sam in predicting the outcome. I beat him 15 to eight last year, and I’m hoping I can push that margin even higher this time around.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

JS: American Fiction

This is typically a category to celebrate newcomers, and it would make sense for the Academy to honor first-time feature screenwriter Cord Jefferson for his breakout comedy. The betting odds reflect this: Once a dark horse, American Fiction is now firmly the frontrunner here. I’d much prefer the intricately constructed screenplay of Oppenheimer, but Christopher Nolan will see plenty of awards go his way Sunday night.

SC: Killers of the Flower Moon

Consider this a protest pick. Quite possibly the first of many.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

JS: Anatomy of a Fall

I’m pretty lukewarm on Anatomy of a Fall, so it feels strange to me that this dull French courtroom drama is the favorite in this category. (For what it’s worth I don’t think she did it, but I also didn’t care very much whether she did.) May December is clearly the best of the category, a twisted and slippery character study that captures the kindness and pain and desire and monstrosity in its characters’ impulses all at once. Unfortunately it has no chance, but I’m happy it was nominated.

SC: Anatomy of a Fall

I loved Anatomy of a Fall – outside of a bizarre choice at the end – and I think it very well could be the best movie of the year. That is in large part due to a killer screenplay, and some of the best fighting dialogue I’ve heard in years. I just wish Snoop could’ve snagged a nomination in Supporting Actor. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JS: Robert Downey Jr.

Not much to say here: RDJ is a big lock. His role in Oppenheimer is good-not-great, but I’m fine with the win. I thought I was sick of his charming guy shtick until his speech at the Golden Globes, which reminded me that no one really does it quite like him. He rocks! If I had to vote for one of these nominees, it would be the sublime (!) Ken performance by Ryan Gosling.

SC: Robert Downey Jr.

It’s quite sad that the second best Robert nominated for Supporting Actor this year will actually go home with the prize. RDJ featured in all of the worst, most heavy-handed parts of the film, turning it from an all-time classic to a good but forgettable flick. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

JS: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Da’Vine Joy Randolph is wonderful in The Holdovers, a wonderful film featuring wonderful performances by Paul Giamatti and Dominic Sessa. Everything about that movie makes me feel wonderful. I’m going to watch it every year around Christmas, it’s that good. And Randolph’s performance just gets better and better throughout the film as you learn more about her character. She’s going to win, and she deserves it. And I personally find it a very savvy career move to win an Academy Award shortly after starring in The Idol. Very smart.

SC: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Now here is a big-time favorite that I can support. The Holdovers was fantastic, a film that I can see myself rewatching over and over again throughout the years. It’s just such an endearing watch, a real movie’s movie, if you know what I mean. And Da’Vine Joy Randolph is in many ways the heart of the flick. 

BEST ACTOR

JS: Cillian Murphy

This one isn’t a total lock; Giamatti has a chance. But I think the Academy will recognize Murphy for what is refreshingly one of the least showy and yet most deeply felt biopic performances I can remember. It helps that J. Robert Oppenheimer was not a major pop culture figure like Elvis — we did not have to spend all Oscar season breaking down the accuracy of Murphy’s mannerisms. Murphy has a chameleonic ability to embody his characters, and I can’t imagine any other actor pulling this off as well as he did. I hope he wins, although I have a ton of respect for what Bradley Cooper was doing in Maestro.

SC: Cillian Murphy

Far and away the best part of an otherwise ehhhhhh movie. I thiiiiink I would lean Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers if I had a vote, but I wouldn’t be upset with Murphy’s win. He delivers what is likely a career-best performance as Oppenheimer. His performance is a pretty subdued one, but he is so good at portraying the inner turmoil of Oppenheimer. I think if you zoomed in on just Murphy’s eyes the whole flick, you’d still have a solid understanding of exactly what Oppenheimer felt (though you would lose some terrific mannerisms).

BEST ACTRESS

JS: Emma Stone

I hated Poor Things, so I take no pleasure in making this selection. But I cynically see a trend by the acting branch of the Academy that makes me think it will break this way. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Oscars rarely disagree, but they did in both 2011 and 2020, when Viola Davis won the SAG Award for Best Actress. She went on to lose the Oscar each time to a white actress (Meryl Streep, Frances McDormand).

I fear the acting branch sees the SAG Award as an opportunity to recognize performances they feel they, ahem, should honor, and having done their duty, see the Oscar as an opportunity to recognize the one they really prefer (Emma Stone “bravely” doing a comedic impression of a person with a mental disability). Gladstone won the SAG Award this year, and I hope she pulls off the win to prove me wrong.

SC: Lily Gladstone

I will throw the absolute biggest fit on planet earth if she does not win.

BEST DIRECTOR

JS: Christopher Nolan

It is time to give this man the crown!!! The Dark Knight was the movie that made me fall in love with movies when I saw it in theaters (and then rewatched upwards of 40 times afterwards). Nolan has been consistently making the most audacious blockbusters for 25 years that, at their best, are just as intellectually stirring as they are emotionally resonant. Jonathan Glazer would be a worthy winner as well, but it is going to be Nolan.

SC: Marty

If Nolan would have made everything in Oppenheimer after the bomb test scene as strong as before, I would’ve been happy to have him win. But he just can’t resist being so painfully heavy-handed. He lacks finesse. Compare that with the production of Killers of the Flower Moon, a movie that uses each second so well I was astounded when I walked out of the theater. It felt like a quick 90-minute matinee. Did they lie about the runtime? No, Marty is just that good. 

BEST PICTURE

JS: Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer is the strongest Best Picture frontrunner in more than 15 years, and it is going to win on Sunday night. The funny thing about this win is that after making a Best Picture winner that grossed nearly a billion dollars, I might normally suggest the director could next make whatever he wanted. But I can’t imagine a more “made whatever he wanted” movie than Nolan’s last movie, my beloved Tenet. I truly have no idea what direction he’ll go in next, but I know I’ll be there on opening night.

SC: Killers of the Flower Moon

I simply do not care that it doesn’t have a chance to win. It was the best movie of the year. 

THE OTHER CATEGORIES

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

JS: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

SC: The Boy and the Heron

CINEMATOGRAPHY

JS: Oppenheimer

SC: Killers of the Flower Moon

COSTUME DESIGN

JS: Poor Things

SC: Barbie

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

JS: 20 Days in Mariupol

SC: 20 Days in Mariupol 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

JS: The ABCs of Book Banning

SC: The ABCs of Book Banning

FILM EDITING

JS: Oppenheimer

SC: Oppenheimer 

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

JS: The Zone of Interest

SC: The Zone of Interest

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

JS: Poor Things

SC: Poor Things

ORIGINAL SCORE

JS: Oppenheimer

SC: Oppenheimer

ORIGINAL SONG

JS: What Was I Made For?

SC: What Was I Made For?

PRODUCTION DESIGN

JS: Barbie

SC: Barbie

ANIMATED SHORT

JS: War is Over!

SC: Letter to a Pig

LIVE ACTION SHORT

JS: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

SC: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

SOUND

JS: Oppenheimer

SC: Oppenheimer 

VISUAL EFFECTS

JS: The Creator

SC: Godzilla Minus One