Oscars 2020: final Best Picture predictions
By Jacob Skubish
We’re finally here: Oscar nominations are out on Monday morning. Here are my final predictions for the nine movies that will earn a Best Picture nomination.
↑ 1917
Why It Will Be Nominated: Fresh off a Golden Globes win, 1917 is looking like a lock to earn a Best Picture nomination. The only question at this point is whether or not it’s the favorite to win the whole thing.
Ford v Ferrari
Why It Will Be Nominated: Because the Academy is mostly made up of older white men who like fast cars. Ford v Ferrari is my last movie in among the field, and I don’t feel completely confident on this pick. But director James Mangold has a pretty strong Oscars track record, and I think it will coast to the finish line on its charisma.
↑ Jojo Rabbit
Why It Will Be Nominated: Because audiences really, really love it. Despite some pushback from critics, Jojo Rabbit won the esteemed People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, a strong predictor of Oscars success. I enjoyed Jojo Rabbit quite a bit, and I think it’s kind of dark horse to win it all.
Joker
Why It Will Be Nominated: Because that’s where it seems like things are going, I guess. Joker made a billion dollars, and despite all of the controversy surrounding the movie, many experts and industry big shots loved it, including unlikely supporters like Greta Gerwig. Regardless of whether everyone loved it, the Academy might want to nominate Joker to drive intrigue in the Oscars ceremony.
Little Women
Why It Will Be Nominated: Because it’s a perfect movie? I know, I know, quality isn’t always an indication that a movie will get nominated for an Oscar. But I think Saoirse Ronan, Timothée Chalamet, and Greta Gerwig have enough cache within the industry to earn the nomination. Gender bias could hold it back, but I still feel pretty confident it earns a nomination, if not a win.
↑ Marriage Story
Why It Will Be Nominated: The title “Marriage Story” evokes the Tracy Morgan-starring Oscar movie parody in 30 Rock titled “Hard to Watch,” which is to say it’s a narrative so simply and completely in the awards circuit wheelhouse that it feels, on the surface, a little cheap. But the reviews have been glowing for Noah Baumbach’s story of a crumbling relationship, and I consider Marriage Story a lock for a nomination.
↑ Once Upon A Time ... In Hollywood
Why It Will Be Nominated: Big names, critical and audience adulation, and some self-praise for Hollywood. Quentin Tarantino may be a personally divisive figure, but three of his eight movies have been nominated for Best Picture, which is a damn good batting average, and he missed on his last one with The Hateful Eight. He found the right subject matter for a return to the ceremony: whenever possible, celebrate the movie-making industry itself. This also marks the first Leonardo DiCaprio movie in four years, and the cast is backed up by former nominees Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, and Bruce Dern. Oh, and it’s his best movie in a decade. Once Upon A Time … In Hollywood is a lock for a Best Picture nomination, and at this point, my personal pick for what will win.
↑Parasite
Why It Will Be Nominated: I have to say, I was resistant to the idea that Parasite would earn a Best Picture nomination. This was not out of any opposition to the film itself; Parasite is fantastic. Rather, I have just been pessimistic about the prospect of the Academy nominating a strange Korean film about capitalism that descends into unrefined violence. But all of the industry awards so far suggest that not only will Parasite be nominated, but it should be considered a real threat to win.
The Irishman
Why It Will Be Nominated: Because it’s been universally praised throughout awards season, but mostly because it’s Scorsese. He’s an aging icon with a movie that feels like a swan song, and he already has two Best Picture nominations this decade. The Irishman is a lock.