Oscars 2020 Best Picture contenders, Vol. III: The field narrows
By Jacob Skubish
Early on, this year’s slate of Oscars contenders felt like one of the deepest in recent memory. While that remains true, the list of movies that are true contenders has winnowed as audiences have started to see more of these films. There’s only a handful left that the public has yet to see, and we now have a much clearer idea of which movies are legitimately in the race for Best Picture.
I now consider the ‘Others to Keep an Eye On’ section to be mostly long-shots, and of the ‘Outside Contenders,’ I see two as much stronger threats than the rest.
Here’s where the Best Picture race stands as we get into the final stretch. Up and down arrows indicate whether a movie’s odds have been rising or falling.
Nine Leading CONTENDERS
↑ 1917
Release Date: December 25
Why It’s a Contender: Because it’s a prestige war movie. The Academy loves a good war movie, and this one brings with it the cache of director Sam Mendes, who previously directed Best Picture winner American Beauty. The promotion campaign for 1917 has emphasized the intensive filmmaking style undertaken by Mendes and cinematographer Roger Deakins, and early reviews suggest the effort paid off.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Release Date: November 22
Why It’s a Contender: It was built for awards season: Tom Hanks is in the lead role as Fred Rogers, who is riding a wave of renewed popularity after last year’s documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and whose message of kindness is ripe for the kind of shallow displays of self-congratulation the Academy loves to indulge in. Director Marielle Heller is also coming off the lovely Can You Ever Forgive Me? last year, which was snubbed a nomination. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood did decent business in its opening weekend, and reviews have been positive.
A Hidden Life
Release Date: December 13
Why It’s a Contender: Terrence Malick. The visionary filmmaker behind The Tree of Life and Days of Heaven is back with a film that is earning critical praise, although the conversation around this movie has been fairly muted. The 75-year-old director has also never won an Oscar, so expect a lifetime achievement award campaign. The drawbacks? No recognizable names in the cast and a nearly 3-hour run time.
↑ Joker
Release Date: October 4
Why It’s a Contender: Because that’s where it seems like things are going, I guess. Joker is going to make a billion dollars, and despite all of the controversy surrounding the movie, many experts and industry big shots loved it, including unlikely supporters like Greta Gerwig. Regardless of whether everyone loved it, the Academy might want to nominate Joker to drive intrigue in the Oscars ceremony.
↑ Little Women
Release Date: December 25
Why It’s a Contender: I think Saoirse Ronan and Timothée Chalamet could stare at each other in costume for two hours and Little Women might just get nominated. But if you need more of an argument, how about a cast that also includes Laura Dern, Emma Watson, Chris Cooper, Bob Odenkirk, Queen of the Oscars Meryl Streep, and breakout performer of the year Florence Pugh? How about this being director Greta Gerwig’s follow-up to Lady Bird? Or that it is a costume drama based on a classic American novel set to be released Christmas Day? Early reviews have been glowing, and I think Little Women is a near-lock for a nomination.
↑ Marriage Story
Release Date: November 6 (limited release), December 6 (Netflix)
Why It’s a Contender: The title “Marriage Story” evokes the Tracy Morgan-starring Oscar movie parody in 30 Rock titled “Hard to Watch,” which is to say it’s a narrative so simply and completely in the awards circuit wheelhouse that it feels, on the surface, a little cheap. But the reviews are glowing for Noah Baumbach’s story of a crumbling relationship, and Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver are sure to be leading contenders for the acting categories. The top barrier to a nomination for Marriage Story is its release on Netflix. Roma’s success suggested the Academy is no longer hesitant to honor streaming releases, though.
Once Upon A Time ... In Hollywood
Release Date: July 26
Why It’s a Contender: Big names, critical and audience adulation, and some self-praise for Hollywood. Quentin Tarantino may be a personally divisive figure, but three of his eight movies have been nominated for Best Picture, which is a damn good batting average, and he missed on his last one with The Hateful Eight. He found the right subject matter for a return to the ceremony: whenever possible, celebrate the movie-making industry itself. This also marks the first Leonardo DiCaprio movie in four years, and the cast is backed up by former nominees Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, and Bruce Dern. Oh, and it’s his best movie in a decade. Once Upon A Time … In Hollywood is a lock for a Best Picture nomination, and at this point, my personal pick for what will win.
The Farewell
Release Date: July 12
Why It’s a Contender: It could be the perennial Film Festival Favorite of Oscars season. A24 has done a hell of a job rolling out The Farewell, as the film earned the highest per-screen average of the year in its release. Strong promotion was going to be crucial for this indie to have legs, and it was a word-of-mouth hit. It also has a recognizable star in Awkwafina. I was a little worried that its July release date will hold it back, but it seems like it has remained in the consciousness.
↑ The Irishman
Release Date: November 1 (limited release), November 27 (Netflix)
Why It’s a Contender: Scorsese. The iconic director returns to the world of the mob with The Irishman, starring Al Pacino, Robert De Niro, and Joe Pesci. That’s a shoe-in for a nomination on paper, and the reviews have universally praised the film. Consider this one to be a lock for a nomination.
Nine OUTSIDE CONTENDERS
↑ Bombshell
Release Date: December 20
Why It’s a Contender: Because it has an open lane to be the “political movie” among this year’s contenders. I wasn’t very excited for this movie, but it has huge star power and frankly, this trailer rules. It’s not quite in the top contenders section because the politics are complicated (the hero of the movie is Megyn Kelly, and Fox News is still thriving today), but if audiences respond to it, it has a real shot.
CATS
Release Date: December 20
Why It’s a Contender: Because it might be…good? When the trailer for Cats was released the film immediately became a joke, and millions were disturbed by feline Judi Dench. But I don’t know! The technology could be cool! I think the expectations have gotten so low for Cats that at this point it can do nothing but exceed them.
↑ Ford v Ferrari
Release Date: November 15
Why It’s a Contender: Because it’s a classic Leading Man Movie, and it loves America. And because director James Mangold (Logan, Walk the Line) knows how to tell a story that connects with audiences. I found Ford v Ferrari to be a pretty paint-by-numbers biopic, but it’s done great business at the box office, and it has Damon and Bale. This one is just on the outside.
Hustlers
Release Date: September 13
Why It’s a Contender: Because I really, really love it. Is that a good enough reason? Seriously, though: audiences responded very positively to Hustlers, and it was a modest hit at the box office. Jennier Lopez is firmly in the race for Best Supporting Actress, and director Lorene Scafaria earned a nomination at the Spirit Awards. The success of Hustlers was a win for the movie industry, and I hope (and think there’s a slight chance) that translates to the Oscars, although the overwhelming maleness of the Academy’s voting body could hold it back.
↑ Jojo Rabbit
Release Date: October 18
Why It’s a Contender: Because Fox Searchlight knows how to build an Oscar winner. The studio has catapulted three films to Best Picture wins in the past six years, with 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, and The Shape of Water. It’s also the force behind Slumdog Millionaire, one of the least likely winners of recent memory. I enjoyed Jojo Rabbit quite a bit, and it won the esteemed People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, which Green Book won last year. Still, the buzz around Jojo Rabbit hasn’t reached Green Book levels, and I’m not sold that it will contend in a much stronger year than last year. It’s my first movie out of the leading nine contenders.
↑ Richard Jewell
Release Date: December 13
Why It’s a Contender: Because Clint Eastwood keeps churning out movies, and his name alone makes Richard Jewell worthy of consideration. The 89-year-old director began filming this movie this summer and is putting it in theaters in December, an incredible feat (Eastwood refused to evacuate the California wildfires this fall to finish editing the film). It’s got a great trailer, a great cast, and the “based on a true story” thing going for it. But few have seen Richard Jewell, so it’s to be determined what its critical reception will be.
↓ star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Release Date: December 20
Why It’s a Contender: Because it’s Star Wars! Unlike the MCU, Star Wars seems to be a franchise the industry hasn’t grown tired of, and this latest trilogy has been highly praised by both critics and audiences. (Note: these movies are fucking great.) This one ends the trilogy, and the Academy has tended to reward similar franchise cappers (The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Toy Story 3). It also couldn’t hurt for ABC, which is owned by Disney and will air the ceremony, to have one of Disney’s biggest successes front and center.
The Report
Release Date: September 27
Why It’s a Contender: Because it’s an austere political drama that critics love? The early reviews have been glowing, and Adam Driver continues to make his push for the best working actor we have. But it’s also a really boring title, and when reviews say a movie has “coolheaded patience” or “rarely raises its voice,” it means that it is really slow and methodical. It sounds like a good time investment for film geeks, but The Report could have trouble connecting with a wider audience. Annette Bening and Jon Hamm could help.
↓ The Two Popes
Release Date: November 27 (limited release), December 20 (Netflix)
Why It’s a Contender: Because the Academy is old. A conversation between two popes sounds like a boring and morally complicated way to spend two hours to me, but the consensus out of early screenings has been that this is going to be a light, clever crowd-pleaser. With Marriage Story and The Irishman looking like locks, though, I’m just not sure how many nominations Netflix can get.
Others to Keep an eye on
Dark Waters (November 22)
↓ Harriet (November 1)
Judy (September 27)
↓ Just Mercy (December 25)
Pain and Glory (October 4)
↑ Parasite (October 11)
↓ The Aeronauts (December 20)
Uncut Gems (December 13)
↑ Waves (November 15)