Oscars 2021 Best Picture contenders: 'Nomadland' is the early frontrunner
By Jake Skubish
There has never been a more challenging year to predict the Best Picture race. Last year I went nine-for-nine in predicting the nominees, and I correctly picked Parasite to win. This year won’t be as easy. There are three main challenges right now:
Movies continue to be delayed further and further, meaning many potential contenders are delaying their campaigns until the 2022 Oscars.
Netflix has an incredible slate of movies, but there’s no way the Academy is going to let the streaming giant own every Best Picture slot. How many Netflix movies they will nominate is unclear.
Because the Oscars were delayed to April 2021, any movie that debuts at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2021 will be eligible for Best Picture, meaning there could be a wave of high-level contenders enter the picture at the last minute.
All this is to say: these early predictions are a lot more tenuous than they were at this time last year. But after some splashy debuts at the Toronto International Film Festival, the field is a little more clear than it was a few weeks ago. We’re still a long ways from the ceremony on April 25, but we have officially entered into Oscar movie season.
nine leading contenders
Da 5 Bloods
Release Date: June 12
As close as we have to a lock for a nomination this far out. Spike Lee’s latest film might be the biggest he’s ever made; Da 5 Bloods stretches about as far from Brooklyn as you can get. It also happens to be a masterpiece, and a vital historical corrective. For his role as Paul, Delroy Lindo is an early contender for Best Actor.
Hillbilly Elegy
Release Date: TBD
Another Netflix movie, Hillbilly Elegy seems like a safe bet: director Ron Howard is a Hollywood stalwart, and the film is based on a bestselling, and controversial (and bad, in this writer’s opinion), memoir by J.D. Vance. It also stars the leaders in earning Oscar nominations without winning: Amy Adams and Glenn Close.
Mank
Release Date: TBD
David Fincher’s first feature film since Gone Girl is set to hit Netflix this fall. Mank tells the story of Herman Mankiewicz as he writes the screenplay for Orson Welles’ Citizen Kane. It’s the sort of inside Hollywood fodder the Academy loves, from one of the best directors on the planet. Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried star.
Minari
Release Date: TBD
Minari is the biggest outside shot on this list, and it’s unclear when we will see the movie at all. It stars Steven Yeun as the patriarch of a Korean family that moves to Arkansas in the 1980s. A24 should have something contending for Best Picture, and the overwhelming praise this movie has received from festival-goers suggests Minari will be worthy.
Nomadland
Release Date: December 4
Nomadland hit the fall festivals with universal praise and has quickly positioned itself as the frontrunner for Best Picture. The film follows a woman in financial ruin who joins a nomadic community that travels the country in the vans they live in. Director Chloé Zhao is a true talent and the exact sort of voice the Academy claims to be trying to prioritize; she’s also a Hollywood favorite, set to direct Marvel’s The Eternals in 2021. I have a hard time seeing Nomadland not getting nominated.
One night in miami
Release Date: TBD
Another winner of the fall festivals, this feature directorial debut from Regina King centers on a discussion between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke, and Jim Brown about the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s. The performances are expected to be superb and the film was bought by Amazon, meaning it will be able to reach a wide audience.
Respect
Release Date: January 15, 2021
The trailer for this Aretha Franklin biopic showcases Jennifer Hudson’s mind-bogglingly great voice, which could carry the film to a nomination on its own. Respect falls squarely in the tradition of past nominees like Hidden Figures, Selma, and Ray that the Academy tends to be drawn toward: standard format biopics of Black excellence in the face of societal prejudice. The film is still slated for theatrical release, although I expect that could change. Forest Whitaker and Audra McDonald also star.
The Father
Release Date: December 18
Strong early buzz out of Sundance for this drama starring Academy favorites Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins. The film centers on a man refusing care from his daughter as he ages; it’s the sort of plot tailor-made for emotional Oscar-bait speeches.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Release Date: October 16
Yep, another Netflix movie. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the latest from writer-director Aaron Sorkin. The cast is outstanding, and a film about social unrest and a presidential nominating convention during an election year is sure to catch the Academy’s attention. Early reviews have been positive.
Others to Keep an eye on
Ammonite (November 13)
Cherry (TBD)
C’mon C’mon (TBD)
Dune (December 18)
Good Joe Bell (TBD)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (November 27)
News of the World (December 25)
Next Goal Wins (TBD)
On the Rocks (October 23)
Pieces of a Woman (TBD)
Soul (November 20)
Stillwater (TBD)
Tenet
The French Dispatch (TBD)
The Glorias (September 30)
The Little Things (January 29, 2021)
The Midnight Sky (TBD)
Voyagers (November 25)