Oscars 2021 Best Picture contenders: will the year’s most popular movies get nominated?
By Jake Skubish
In late 2019, the Academy floated a new Oscars category: “Best Popular Movie.” The Academy Awards routinely honor little-seen indie movies; this is theoretically at the expensive of the TV audience for the ceremony, which would be more invested in the show if the movies people actually saw were represented. The suggestion for the category was widely ridiculed and quickly pulled. And for good reason: the terms of “popularity” were opaque, and splitting off blockbusters would imply that a movie that makes a lot of money couldn’t outright be the “best” movie of the year. The Academy could honor popular movies without implementing a condescending category.
I found myself thinking about that fiasco this week as the Screen Actors Guild awards and Critics Choice awards were announced, the first in a slate of industry honors. Many of my favorite movies from the year were represented, such as Da 5 Bloods and Sound of Metal, in addition to indie darlings yet to be released, like Minari and Nomadland. But something important is missing: any of the most popular movies of the year.
Without a box office and with many tentpole films delayed, 2020 was a strange year for figuring out which movies were, in fact, popular. But I find comparing to last year’s Best Picture nominees a helpful touchpoint. At least four of the nominees—1917, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, Little Women, and Joker—existed at the nexus of critical discussion and wider audience word-of-mouth. This year, as good as Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami were, I get the sense that very few people I know saw or talked about them. The public hasn’t even been able to see four of the seven nominees I currently have on my list.
This could be a problem for the Academy, and it would be wise to include at least one or two audience favorites in the mix. But what were those? Based on my totally subjective analysis, I’d say the five most popular movies, in terms of both audience buzz and critical appraisal, were:
Palm Springs
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Soul
Tenet
Happiest Season
Right now, all of these movies are on the outside looking in. Do any of them have a chance at a nomination? I’d throw out Happiest Season pretty quickly, and probably my beloved Tenet as well. Soul was critically adored, but as an animated movie faces a difficult path toward Best Picture; the Academy last nominated an animated movie a decade ago (Toy Story 3).
Palm Springs was a near-universal crowd-pleaser; just about everyone liked it, if not loved it. It mirrored the repetitive nature of 2020, and it featured two genuinely great performances. But at this stage, it seems like it will not be getting any Academy love.
The one popular movie I can see breaking through is Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, which would also be the biggest boon for the ceremony’s viewership. Maria Bakalova is a near-lock for a supporting actress nomination, so the film is likely to already be on voters’ radars. I hope the Academy proves my list wrong and gives the film a nomination. It would be deserved, and would drum up some much-needed interest.
Whether Borat can sneak in will depend on the reception of the yet-to-be-released indie frontrunners. Oscar nominations are out March 15; I’ll probably do one more prediction before then. But here’s where I see things standing for now.
Current predicted nominees
Judas and the Black Messiah
My most recent addition to the Best Picture nominee list, Judas and the Black Messiah drops this Friday on HBO Max. Whether it’s able to stick around on this list is dependent on its wider reception, but critical responses suggest it’s an absolute triumph. One thing is certain: Daniel Kaluuya will be earning a nomination for his portrayal of Black Panther leader Fred Hampton.
Mank
David Fincher’s first feature film since Gone Girl tells the story of Herman Mankiewicz as he writes the screenplay for Orson Welles’ Citizen Kane. It’s an esoteric, inside-baseball Hollywood story that still carries plenty of intrigue even if you’ve never seen Kane. It’s also deeply cynical about Hollywood, and it will be interesting to see if the Academy takes kindly to that. Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried star.
Minari
Audiences can finally buy tickets to Minari throughout the month of February after the film debuted at Sundance all the way back in January 2020. It stars Steven Yeun as the patriarch of a Korean family that moves to Arkansas in the 1980s. A24 should have something contending for Best Picture, and the overwhelming praise this movie has received from festival-goers suggests Minari will be worthy.
Nomadland
Nomadland hit the fall festivals with universal praise and has quickly positioned itself as the frontrunner for Best Picture. The film follows a woman in financial ruin who joins a nomadic community that travels the country in the vans they live in. Director Chloé Zhao is a true talent and the exact sort of voice the Academy claims to be trying to prioritize; she’s also a Hollywood favorite, set to direct Marvel’s The Eternals in 2021. I have a hard time seeing Nomadland not getting nominated.
One night in miami
This feature directorial debut from Regina King centers on a discussion between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke, and Jim Brown in 1964. The performances are superb and all work together as a collective ensemble. After seeing the film I’m still a little skeptical of the move to make each of these titans serve as mouthpieces for generalized opposing conceptions of racial progress … but it’s very well made, and has a couple of knockout scenes.
The Father
Strong buzz for this drama starring Academy favorites Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins, which will finally be out Feb. 26. The film centers on a man refusing care from his daughter as he ages; it’s the sort of plot tailor-made for emotional Oscar-bait speeches.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the latest from writer-director Aaron Sorkin. The cast is outstanding, and a film about social unrest and a presidential nominating convention during an election year is sure to capture the Academy’s attention. It is, in my mind, the current frontrunner to win Best Picture.
Others to Keep an eye on
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The United States vs. Billie Holiday