Final predictions: 2021 Oscars Best Picture nominees

By Jake Skubish

More than a year after last year’s Oscars ceremony, we’re finally days away from the 2021 nominee announcement. And honestly, I’ve never cared less about a Best Picture race. Do I have favorites in the field, and movies I think don’t deserve recognition? Of course. But all I can think about is getting back to watching movies with other people in theaters. I pray I am vaccinated in time to see F9.

Nevertheless: I present my final predictions for the Best Picture field, to be officially announced on Monday. I don’t think there’s enough conversation about how groundbreaking these nominees are going to be. Just two of my eight predicted nominees have white men as the lead character, and as far back as I care to count, I don’t think there’s ever been a year with that few, even when there were only five nominees. Three of my expected nominees have nearly all-Black casts, and for the second consecutive year a film led by Asian actors and directed by an Asian man will be nominated. These facts don’t mean the Academy has become a progressive institution; far from it. But it does signify that changes to the voting body have been effective, and that there may be more money available in Hollywood to tell more diverse stories.

predicted nominees

Judas and the Black Messiah

Judas and the Black Messiah is the movie I’m least certain will make the cut, but it’s notable that the Academy may nominate a story about the Black Panther Party at all. It might be coming in the form of a factually smoothed over, edgeless drama, but still. Daniel Kaluuya and and Lakeith Stanfield deliver very good performances, and Kaluuya is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal of Fred Hampton. If Judas falls out of the mix, watch out for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm to sneak in.

Judas and the Black Messiah is available on HBO Max.

MA Rainey’s Black Bottom

Chadwick Boseman has been considered a shoe-in for Best Actor for months for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. It should be made clear that this is not just a posthumous honoring of the actor’s legacy; it’s a stellar, dynamic, career-high performance. The rest of the film is fine, but it’s worth seeing just for Boseman.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is available on Netflix.

Mank

David Fincher’s first feature film since Gone Girl tells the story of Herman Mankiewicz as he writes the screenplay for Orson Welles’ Citizen Kane. It’s an esoteric, inside-baseball Hollywood story that still carries plenty of intrigue even if you’ve never seen Kane. A spirited performance from Amanda Seyfried as actress Marion Davies is the film’s highlight.

Mank is available on Netflix.

Minari

Minari tells the story of a Korean family moving to Arkansas in the 1980s, trying to build a stable financial life for themselves and learning to coexist as a family. It’s a lovely film, both heartbreaking in its depiction of the shortcomings of the American dream and uplifting in how people can thrive beyond that false concept.

Minari is available for rental.

Nomadland

Nomadland is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture. It’s also an absolute miracle of a film, and if you haven’t seen it I couldn’t recommend it more highly. The film stars Frances McDormand as a widower trying to patch together a life as she traverses the American west living out of her van. Adapted from a nonfiction book by Jessica Bruder, Nomadland stars many of the real-life figures of these mobile communities that Bruder wrote about. The film is an insightful exercise in grief and an unparalleled act of empathy.

Nomadland is available on Hulu.

One night in miami

This feature directorial debut from Regina King centers on a discussion between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke, and Jim Brown in 1964. The performances are superb and all work together as a collective ensemble. After seeing the film I’m still a little skeptical of the move to make each of these titans serve as mouthpieces for generalized opposing conceptions of racial progress … but it’s very well made, and has a couple of terrific scenes.

One Night in Miami is available on Amazon Prime.

Promising Young Woman

Promising Young Woman is a mess of a movie. It’s a visually promising debut from director Emerald Fennell, but its aims are often muddled and problematic. I’m pretty surprised at how much it has become a mainstream contender—outside of Chicago 7 and Nomadland, I’d say Promising Young Woman is the third-leading contender for Best Picture.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the latest from writer-director Aaron Sorkin, and it’s very Sorkin-y: a story of great men speaking in rapid-fire dialogue as they fight to advance their vision of progress. The film has its problems, particularly the ending, but the writing is top-notch.